San Luigi vs Delta Porto Tolle

San Luigi

PST

13:00

Delta Porto Tolle

4/19/2020

Serie D - Girone C · Round 36Stadio Comunale Via Felluga (Trieste)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

San Luigi29%

×Draw24%

Delta Porto Tolle47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LuigiExpected goals in this matchDelta Porto Tolle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.65

San Luigi

1.25

Delta Porto Tolle

1.65

Delta Porto Tolle creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 30 away

1.13

creates per match

1.13

2.16

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

San Luigi

1.13

Delta Porto Tolle

1.13

allows per match

San Luigi

2.16

Delta Porto Tolle

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Luigi+0.00on par

Delta Porto Tolle+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Luigi ↓

Delta Porto Tolle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

San Luigi or draw

53%

San Luigi or Delta Porto Tolle

76%

Draw or Delta Porto Tolle

71%

Winning margin

San Luigi wins by 2+

12%

Delta Porto Tolle wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

San Luigi 1+ goals

71%

San Luigi 2+ goals

36%

San Luigi 3+ goals

13%

Delta Porto Tolle 1+ goals

81%

Delta Porto Tolle 2+ goals

49%

Delta Porto Tolle 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

San Luigi (draw refunded)

38%

Delta Porto Tolle (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Luigi at home — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

Delta Porto Tolle away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.37 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Luigi attack 1.13 + Delta Porto Tolle defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.25

Delta Porto Tolle attack 1.13 + San Luigi defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Luigi scores more

29%

level

24%

Delta Porto Tolle scores more

47%

Delta Porto Tolle at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Delta Porto Tolle will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff