San Lorenzo 1–0 Platense: Result & Stats

San Lorenzo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Platense

R. Pérez 90+3'

4/23/2023

Liga Profesional Argentina · Round 13Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

San Lorenzo47%

×Draw30%

Platense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchPlatense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

0.74

San Lorenzo

1.19

Platense

0.74

San Lorenzo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

1.18

creates per match

0.73

0.75

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.18

Platense

0.73

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.75

Platense

1.21

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

San Lorenzo-0.43scores less

Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Platense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

77%

San Lorenzo or Platense

70%

Draw or Platense

53%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

21%

Platense wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

70%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

33%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

12%

Platense 1+ goals

52%

Platense 2+ goals

17%

Platense 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

67%

Platense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.18 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Platense attack 0.73 + San Lorenzo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

47%

level

30%

Platense scores more

23%

San Lorenzo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

M. Braida

San Lorenzo · M

7.9

Match Events

29'

Nicolás Morgantini

46'

F. Perruzzi← C. Sánchez

46'

I. Leguizamón← N. Blandi

46'

G. Luján← A. Giay

50'

Gastón Hernández

64'

I. Rossi← F. Baldassarra

64'

I. Schor← R. Martínez

73'

G. Maroni← N. Barrios

76'

M. Zalazar← V. Taborda

76'

A. Sabella← F. Díaz

81'

Alexis Sabella

89'

M. Quiroga← N. Servetto

90+3'

R. Pérez↳ F. Gattoni

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanPlatense

Overview

53%Possession47%

9Total Shots12

3Corners2

17Fouls13

Shots

9Total Shots12

2On Target2

4Off Target5

3Blocked5

6Inside Box2

3Outside Box10

Passing

53%Possession47%

462Total Passes416

365Accurate Passes308

79%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

5Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Lorenzo 1–0 Platense

San Lorenzo beat Platense 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 23, 2023.

Goals: R. Pérez (90+3').

San Lorenzo controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.

San Lorenzo vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: San Lorenzo 1–0 Platense