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San Lorenzo vs Platense — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Platense
Platense
E. Cerutti 70' (pen)
G. Hernández 16'
8/16/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Estadio Pedro Bidegaín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

San Lorenzo47%
×Draw30%
Platense23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Lorenzo
1.19
Platense
0.74

San Lorenzo creates 61% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

creates per match

San Lorenzo
1.18
Platense
0.73

allows per match

San Lorenzo
0.75
Platense
1.21

finishing

San Lorenzo-0.43scores less
Platense+0.03on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Platense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw
77%
San Lorenzo or Platense
70%
Draw or Platense
53%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+
21%
Platense wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals
70%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
33%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
12%
Platense 1+ goals
52%
Platense 2+ goals
17%
Platense 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
67%
Platense (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Platense away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.21 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.18 + Platense defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.19

Platense attack 0.73 + San Lorenzo defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

San Lorenzo scores more
47%
level
30%
Platense scores more
23%

San Lorenzo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
E. CeruttiSan LorenzoSan Lorenzo · F
8.0

Match Events

10'
Gastón Hernández
16'
G. Hernández↳ A. Bareiro
20'
Federico Gino
46'
A. Giay← A. Martegani
46'
N. Delgadillo← A. Sabella
60'
G. Maroni← N. Barrios
61'
R. Contreras← F. Gino
61'
J. Esquivel← H. Tijanovich
70'
E. CeruttiPenalty
74'
I. Leguizamón← E. Cerutti
75'
Mauro Zárate
75'
N. Casasola← C. Villalba
75'
V. Taborda← M. Zárate
82'
A. Vombergar← A. Bareiro
82'
F. Perruzzi← I. Méndez

Possession

48%San

Shots

9San

Pass accuracy

48%San

Statistics

SanPlatense
Overview
48%Possession52%
9Total Shots5
6Corners4
19Fouls13
Shots
9Total Shots5
3On Target1
4Off Target4
2Blocked0
6Inside Box3
3Outside Box2
Passing
48%Possession52%
352Total Passes403
261Accurate Passes323
74%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Platense

San Lorenzo beat Platense 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on August 16, 2022.

Goals: G. Hernández (16'), E. Cerutti (70' pen).

Platense controlled possession (52%) and registered 5 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegaín in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.