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Kabuscorp vs Progresso — Girabola 2012

Kabuscorp
Kabuscorp
FT
0 – 1
Progresso
Progresso
3/4/2012GirabolaGirabola · Round 1Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Kabuscorp57%
×Draw26%
Progresso17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kabuscorp
1.53
Progresso
0.70

Kabuscorp creates 119% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 52 away

creates per match

Kabuscorp
1.31
Progresso
0.56

allows per match

Kabuscorp
0.84
Progresso
1.75

finishing

Kabuscorp+0.00on par
Progresso+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kabuscorp ↓

Progresso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kabuscorp or draw
83%
Kabuscorp or Progresso
74%
Draw or Progresso
43%

Winning margin

Kabuscorp wins by 2+
30%
Progresso wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kabuscorp 1+ goals
78%
Kabuscorp 2+ goals
45%
Kabuscorp 3+ goals
20%
Progresso 1+ goals
50%
Progresso 2+ goals
16%
Progresso 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Kabuscorp (draw refunded)
77%
Progresso (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kabuscorp at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.84 · 68 matches

Progresso away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.75 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kabuscorp attack 1.31 + Progresso defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.53

Progresso attack 0.56 + Kabuscorp defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Kabuscorp scores more
57%
level
26%
Progresso scores more
17%

Kabuscorp at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Kabuscorp will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kabuscorp vs Progresso

Progresso beat Kabuscorp 1-0 in Girabola on March 4, 2012.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal dos Coqueiros.