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San Juan vs Ardoi — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

San Juan
San Juan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ardoi
Ardoi
4/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio San Juan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

San Juan49%
×Draw27%
Ardoi23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Juan
1.39
Ardoi
0.86

San Juan creates 62% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 92 away

creates per match

San Juan
1.64
Ardoi
1.22

allows per match

San Juan
0.51
Ardoi
1.14

finishing

San Juan+0.00on par
Ardoi+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Juan ↓

Ardoi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Juan or draw
77%
San Juan or Ardoi
73%
Draw or Ardoi
51%

Winning margin

San Juan wins by 2+
24%
Ardoi wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

San Juan 1+ goals
75%
San Juan 2+ goals
40%
San Juan 3+ goals
16%
Ardoi 1+ goals
58%
Ardoi 2+ goals
21%
Ardoi 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

San Juan (draw refunded)
68%
Ardoi (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Juan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.51 · 61 matches

Ardoi away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.14 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Juan attack 1.64 + Ardoi defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.39

Ardoi attack 1.22 + San Juan defence 0.51 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

San Juan scores more
49%
level
27%
Ardoi scores more
23%

San Juan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "San Juan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 15: San Juan 1–1 Ardoi

San Juan and Ardoi drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Juan in Pamplona.