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San Jose Earthquakes vs Minnesota United FC — Major League Soccer 2026

San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC
C. Cowell 16'
T. Pukki 4'
9/3/2023Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 40PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 39+ matches

San Jose Earthquakes46%
×Draw23%
Minnesota United FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Jose Earthquakes
1.75
Minnesota United FC
1.41

San Jose Earthquakes creates 24% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 39 away

creates per match

San Jose Earthquakes
1.77
Minnesota United FC
1.35

allows per match

San Jose Earthquakes
1.46
Minnesota United FC
1.74

finishing

San Jose Earthquakes-0.21scores less
Minnesota United FC+0.27scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Jose Earthquakes ↓

Minnesota United FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

San Jose Earthquakes or draw
69%
San Jose Earthquakes or Minnesota United FC
77%
Draw or Minnesota United FC
54%

Winning margin

San Jose Earthquakes wins by 2+
24%
Minnesota United FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

San Jose Earthquakes 1+ goals
83%
San Jose Earthquakes 2+ goals
52%
San Jose Earthquakes 3+ goals
25%
Minnesota United FC 1+ goals
76%
Minnesota United FC 2+ goals
41%
Minnesota United FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

San Jose Earthquakes (draw refunded)
59%
Minnesota United FC (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Jose Earthquakes at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.46 · 48 matches

Minnesota United FC away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.74 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Jose Earthquakes attack 1.77 + Minnesota United FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.75

Minnesota United FC attack 1.35 + San Jose Earthquakes defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

San Jose Earthquakes scores more
46%
level
23%
Minnesota United FC scores more
31%

San Jose Earthquakes at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "San Jose Earthquakes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

44
C. CowellSan Jose EarthquakesSan Jose Earthquakes · M
8.0

Match Events

4'
T. Pukki↳ E. Reynoso
16'
C. Cowell↳ J. Yueill
31'
Carlos Gruezo
39'
Emanuel Reynoso
63'
Teemu PukkiGoal cancelled
64'
E. Bristow← Ismael Tajouri
81'
N. Tsakiris← Jamiro Monteiro
81'
M. García← T. Pukki
85'
Michael Boxall
90+3'
B. Kikanovic← C. Cowell
90+3'
M. Baldisimo← J. Yueill

Possession

49%San

Shots

18San

Pass accuracy

50%San

Statistics

SanMinnesota
Overview
49%Possession51%
18Total Shots14
1.76Expected Goals (xG)1.85
9Corners5
5Fouls12
Shots
18Total Shots14
6On Target7
8Off Target4
4Blocked3
13Inside Box10
5Outside Box4
Passing
49%Possession51%
453Total Passes475
391Accurate Passes410
86%Pass Accuracy86%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
5Fouls12
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides0

Major League Soccer: San Jose Earthquakes 1–1 Minnesota United FC

San Jose Earthquakes and Minnesota United FC drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on September 3, 2023.

Goals: T. Pukki (4'), C. Cowell (16').

Minnesota United FC controlled possession (51%) and registered 14 shots to 18.

The match was played at PayPal Park in San Jose, California.