Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

San Francisco FC vs Deportivo Universitario — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Universitario
Deportivo Universitario
9/16/2018Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 8Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez (La Chorrera)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 128+ matches

San Francisco FC42%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Universitario30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Francisco FC
1.27
Deportivo Universitario
1.02

San Francisco FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 128 away

creates per match

San Francisco FC
1.20
Deportivo Universitario
1.00

allows per match

San Francisco FC
1.05
Deportivo Universitario
1.34

finishing

San Francisco FC+0.00on par
Deportivo Universitario+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Francisco FC ↓

Deportivo Universitario →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

San Francisco FC or draw
70%
San Francisco FC or Deportivo Universitario
72%
Draw or Deportivo Universitario
58%

Winning margin

San Francisco FC wins by 2+
19%
Deportivo Universitario wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

San Francisco FC 1+ goals
72%
San Francisco FC 2+ goals
36%
San Francisco FC 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Universitario 1+ goals
64%
Deportivo Universitario 2+ goals
27%
Deportivo Universitario 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Francisco FC (draw refunded)
59%
Deportivo Universitario (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Francisco FC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.05 · 131 matches

Deportivo Universitario away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.34 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Francisco FC attack 1.20 + Deportivo Universitario defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.27

Deportivo Universitario attack 1.00 + San Francisco FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Francisco FC scores more
42%
level
28%
Deportivo Universitario scores more
30%

San Francisco FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Francisco FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: San Francisco FC 1–1 Deportivo Universitario

San Francisco FC and Deportivo Universitario drew 1-1 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on September 16, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez (La Chorrera).