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San Francisco FC vs Alianza FC — Liga Panameña de Fútbol 2018

San Francisco FC
San Francisco FC
FT
1 – 0
Alianza FC
Alianza FC
10/17/2018Liga Panameña de FútbolLiga Panameña de Fútbol · Apertura - 14Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez (La Chorrera)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

San Francisco FC40%
×Draw29%
Alianza FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Francisco FC
1.19
Alianza FC
1.01

San Francisco FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 129 away

creates per match

San Francisco FC
1.20
Alianza FC
0.97

allows per match

San Francisco FC
1.05
Alianza FC
1.17

finishing

San Francisco FC+0.00on par
Alianza FC+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Francisco FC ↓

Alianza FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

San Francisco FC or draw
69%
San Francisco FC or Alianza FC
71%
Draw or Alianza FC
60%

Winning margin

San Francisco FC wins by 2+
17%
Alianza FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Francisco FC 1+ goals
70%
San Francisco FC 2+ goals
33%
San Francisco FC 3+ goals
12%
Alianza FC 1+ goals
64%
Alianza FC 2+ goals
27%
Alianza FC 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

San Francisco FC (draw refunded)
56%
Alianza FC (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Francisco FC at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.05 · 131 matches

Alianza FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.17 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Francisco FC attack 1.20 + Alianza FC defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.19

Alianza FC attack 0.97 + San Francisco FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

San Francisco FC scores more
40%
level
29%
Alianza FC scores more
31%

San Francisco FC at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "San Francisco FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Panameña de Fútbol: San Francisco FC 1–0 Alianza FC

San Francisco FC beat Alianza FC 1-0 in Liga Panameña de Fútbol on October 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio Agustín Muquita Sánchez (La Chorrera).