San Francisco City vs Golden State Force

San Francisco City

PST

02:00

Golden State Force

5/30/2020

USL League Two · Round 15Kezar Stadium (San Francisco, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

San Francisco City48%

×Draw24%

Golden State Force28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San Francisco CityExpected goals in this matchGolden State Force

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.26

San Francisco City

1.72

Golden State Force

1.26

San Francisco City creates 37% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 7 away

1.58

creates per match

0.86

1.67

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

San Francisco City

1.58

Golden State Force

0.86

allows per match

San Francisco City

1.67

Golden State Force

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

San Francisco City+0.00on par

Golden State Force+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Francisco City ↓

Golden State Force →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

San Francisco City or draw

72%

San Francisco City or Golden State Force

76%

Draw or Golden State Force

52%

Winning margin

San Francisco City wins by 2+

26%

Golden State Force wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

San Francisco City 1+ goals

82%

San Francisco City 2+ goals

51%

San Francisco City 3+ goals

25%

Golden State Force 1+ goals

72%

Golden State Force 2+ goals

36%

Golden State Force 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

San Francisco City (draw refunded)

63%

Golden State Force (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Francisco City at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.67 · 36 matches

Golden State Force away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Francisco City attack 1.58 + Golden State Force defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.72

Golden State Force attack 0.86 + San Francisco City defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

San Francisco City scores more

48%

level

24%

Golden State Force scores more

28%

San Francisco City at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "San Francisco City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff