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San Diego Wave W vs Utah Royals W — NWSL Women 2026

San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
Preview
02:00
Utah Royals W
Utah Royals W
8/22/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageSnapdragon Stadium
Big match
44%
San Diego Wave W
model favours
44%26%30%

San Diego Wave W have won 5 of the last 5 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
under 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

San Diego Wave W44%
×Draw26%
Utah Royals W30%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Diego Wave W
1.46
Utah Royals W
1.14

San Diego Wave W creates 28% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 48 away

creates per match

San Diego Wave W
1.39
Utah Royals W
1.02

allows per match

San Diego Wave W
1.25
Utah Royals W
1.54

finishing

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par
Utah Royals W+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Diego Wave W ↓

Utah Royals W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

San Diego Wave W or draw
70%
San Diego Wave W or Utah Royals W
74%
Draw or Utah Royals W
56%

Winning margin

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
22%
Utah Royals W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
77%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
43%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
18%
Utah Royals W 1+ goals
68%
Utah Royals W 2+ goals
32%
Utah Royals W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
60%
Utah Royals W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches

Utah Royals W away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Diego Wave W attack 1.39 + Utah Royals W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.46

Utah Royals W attack 1.02 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

San Diego Wave W scores more
44%
level
26%
Utah Royals W scores more
30%

San Diego Wave W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Utah Royals W fall short of their xG (1.1 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Their last 5 meetings averaged 3.6 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
San Diego Wave W
Balanced
Utah Royals W
Balanced
56%PossessionBiggest gap49%
81%Pass accuracy76%
10.7Shots10.4
—xG1.59
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
San Diego Wave WUtah Royals W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

5
San Diego Wave W
0
Draws
0
Utah Royals W
Avg goals: 3.6BTTS: 80%
2–13–23–22–12–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
DLWWW
W
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

San Diego Wave W face Utah Royals W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with San Diego Wave W hosting Utah Royals W. Match starts August 22, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

San Diego Wave W host Utah Royals W at Snapdragon Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.