San Diego Wave W vs Boston Legacy W — NWSL Women 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 6+ matches
San Diego Wave W48%
Boston Legacy W24%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
San Diego Wave W creates 55% more chances
Season form · 57 home / 6 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No57
- Yes43
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
San Diego Wave W ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
San Diego Wave W at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.25 · 57 matches
Boston Legacy W away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
San Diego Wave W attack 1.39 + Boston Legacy W defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.36
Boston Legacy W attack 0.50 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.88
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
San Diego Wave W at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Angel City W
NJ/NY Gotham FC W
Bay FC WBoston Legacy W
Washington Spirit W
Kansas City WSan Diego Wave W
Denver Summit W
Portland Thorns W
Seattle Reign FC W
Orlando Pride W
Utah Royals W
Chicago Red Stars W
North Carolina Courage W
Houston Dash W
Racing Louisville WIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
San Diego Wave W host Boston Legacy W on Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 23:00. The match is part of the NWSL Women 2026/2027 season.
Preview: San Diego Wave W host Boston Legacy W
October 25, 2026: San Diego Wave W take on Boston Legacy W in NWSL Women. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.
San Diego Wave W host Boston Legacy W at Snapdragon Stadium.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.