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San Cristóbal vs Pobla Mafumet — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Pobla Mafumet
Pobla Mafumet
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

San Cristóbal42%
×Draw27%
Pobla Mafumet31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

San Cristóbal
1.35
Pobla Mafumet
1.11

San Cristóbal creates 22% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 76 away

creates per match

San Cristóbal
1.37
Pobla Mafumet
1.07

allows per match

San Cristóbal
1.15
Pobla Mafumet
1.34

finishing

San Cristóbal+0.00on par
Pobla Mafumet+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Cristóbal ↓

Pobla Mafumet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

San Cristóbal or draw
69%
San Cristóbal or Pobla Mafumet
73%
Draw or Pobla Mafumet
58%

Winning margin

San Cristóbal wins by 2+
20%
Pobla Mafumet wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

San Cristóbal 1+ goals
74%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
39%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
15%
Pobla Mafumet 1+ goals
67%
Pobla Mafumet 2+ goals
30%
Pobla Mafumet 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
58%
Pobla Mafumet (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Cristóbal at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.15 · 109 matches

Pobla Mafumet away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.34 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Cristóbal attack 1.37 + Pobla Mafumet defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Pobla Mafumet attack 1.07 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

San Cristóbal scores more
42%
level
27%
Pobla Mafumet scores more
31%

San Cristóbal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "San Cristóbal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: San Cristóbal 2–0 Pobla Mafumet

San Cristóbal beat Pobla Mafumet 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Camp de Futbol Municipal Ca n'Anglada in Tarrasa.