Samtredia 2–3 Torpedo Kutaisi: Result & Stats

Samtredia

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Torpedo Kutaisi

8/14/2023

Erovnuli Liga · Round 21Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Samtredia33%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Kutaisi40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtrediaExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Kutaisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.34

Samtredia

1.20

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.34

Torpedo Kutaisi creates 12% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 128 away

1.09

creates per match

1.25

1.44

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Samtredia

1.09

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.25

allows per match

Samtredia

1.44

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par

Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Torpedo Kutaisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw

60%

Samtredia or Torpedo Kutaisi

73%

Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi

67%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+

14%

Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals

70%

Samtredia 2+ goals

34%

Samtredia 3+ goals

12%

Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals

74%

Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals

39%

Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)

45%

Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Torpedo Kutaisi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.30 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.09 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.20

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.25 + Samtredia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Samtredia scores more

33%

level

27%

Torpedo Kutaisi scores more

40%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff