Samtredia 1–0 Torpedo Kutaisi: Result & Stats

Samtredia

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Torpedo Kutaisi

N. Qurbanov 13' (pen)

3/7/2020

Erovnuli Liga · Round 1Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Samtredia34%

×Draw27%

Torpedo Kutaisi39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtrediaExpected goals in this matchTorpedo Kutaisi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.33

Samtredia

1.23

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 68 home / 121 away

1.15

creates per match

1.24

1.43

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Samtredia

1.15

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.24

allows per match

Samtredia

1.43

Torpedo Kutaisi

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par

Torpedo Kutaisi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Torpedo Kutaisi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw

61%

Samtredia or Torpedo Kutaisi

73%

Draw or Torpedo Kutaisi

66%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+

15%

Torpedo Kutaisi wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals

71%

Samtredia 2+ goals

35%

Samtredia 3+ goals

13%

Torpedo Kutaisi 1+ goals

74%

Torpedo Kutaisi 2+ goals

38%

Torpedo Kutaisi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)

47%

Torpedo Kutaisi (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 68 matches

Torpedo Kutaisi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.31 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.15 + Torpedo Kutaisi defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Torpedo Kutaisi attack 1.24 + Samtredia defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Samtredia scores more

34%

level

27%

Torpedo Kutaisi scores more

39%

Torpedo Kutaisi at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Torpedo Kutaisi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

K. Sepiashvili

13'

N. QurbanovPenalty

32'

G. Adamadze

46'

Z. Ghirdaladze← G. Iluridze

46'

V. Ponomar← Z. Tsitskishvili

50'

Diz

53'

G. Akhaladze

57'

L. Imnadze← L. Kochladze

68'

G. Ivanishvili← V. Marković

71'

K. Sambou

81'

D. Ionanidze← G. Pantsulaia

87'

G. Jgerenaia← G. Akhaladze

90+4'

L. Imnadze

Samtredia

Torpedo

31

35

3

2

5

8

22

9

6

▼

Marković

14

▼

Pantsulai

7

▼

19

2

4

16

▼

Akhaladze

29

Sambou

8

▼

Kochladze

17

⚽

7

23

26

10

▼

Iluridze

Manager: K. Katcharava

46'▲Z. Ghirdaladze←▼G. Iluridze

57'▲L. Imnadze←▼L. Kochladze

87'▲G. Jgerenaia←▼G. Akhaladze

Samtredia substitutes

11Ghirdaladze9Imnadze24Jgerenaia1Sikach13Krstevski22Inkoom25Shyshka27Kerdzevadze31Ferreira

Manager: V. Khachidze

46'▲V. Ponomar←▼Z. Tsitskishvili

68'▲G. Ivanishvili←▼V. Marković

81'▲D. Ionanidze←▼G. Pantsulaia

Torpedo Kutaisi substitutes

10Ponomar24Ivanishvili11Ionanidze17Shovnadze18Abuladze19Kvernadze20Sharvashidze21Botchorishvili33Grigalashvili