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Samtredia vs Telavi — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
Preview
11:00
Telavi
Telavi
11/21/2026Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 33Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium
Big match
49%
Samtredia
model favours
49%25%26%

Telavi have won 5 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Samtredia49%
×Draw25%
Telavi26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.60
Telavi
1.11

Samtredia creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 28 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Telavi
1.25

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Telavi
1.50

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Telavi+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Telavi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
74%
Samtredia or Telavi
75%
Draw or Telavi
51%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
25%
Telavi wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
80%
Samtredia 2+ goals
47%
Samtredia 3+ goals
22%
Telavi 1+ goals
67%
Telavi 2+ goals
30%
Telavi 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
65%
Telavi (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Telavi away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Telavi defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Telavi attack 1.25 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Samtredia scores more
49%
level
25%
Telavi scores more
26%

Samtredia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Telavi are unbeaten in 7 straight
  • Samtredia score first in only 21% of matches
  • 74% of Samtredia’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Samtredia win just 38% against the top half (vs 63% against the bottom)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Samtredia
LLDLL
Telavi
WWWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Samtredia vs Telavi — Match Preview

Samtredia face Telavi on November 21, 2026 in this Erovnuli Liga 2 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Samtredia host Telavi at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.