Samtredia 6–2 Telavi: Result & Stats

Samtredia

FT

6 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Telavi

G. Samushia 84'

A. Endeladze 83'

V. Kilasonia 65' (pen)

G. Akhaladze 47', 19' (pen)

G. Gogua 31'

Y. Kvasov 85'

A. Koshkadze 82'

5/26/2019

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 13Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze (Samtredia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Samtredia47%

×Draw25%

Telavi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtrediaExpected goals in this matchTelavi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.13

Samtredia

1.55

Telavi

1.13

Samtredia creates 37% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 30 away

1.71

creates per match

1.27

0.98

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Samtredia

1.71

Telavi

1.27

allows per match

Samtredia

0.98

Telavi

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par

Telavi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Telavi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw

72%

Samtredia or Telavi

75%

Draw or Telavi

53%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+

24%

Telavi wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals

79%

Samtredia 2+ goals

46%

Samtredia 3+ goals

20%

Telavi 1+ goals

68%

Telavi 2+ goals

31%

Telavi 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)

63%

Telavi (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Telavi away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Telavi defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.55

Telavi attack 1.27 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Samtredia scores more

47%

level

25%

Telavi scores more

28%

Samtredia at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

G. Mikava← D. Pudy

19'

G. AkhaladzePenalty

31'

G. Gogua

47'

G. Akhaladze

58'

N. Nozadze← A. Tolordava

65'

V. KilasoniaPenalty

69'

V. Gogolidze← P. Marakvelidze

73'

A. Endeladze← G. Akhaladze

80'

S. Kerdzevadze← G. Maghaldadze

82'

83'

84'

85'

86'

A. Ninua← A. Mesiachenko

Samtredia

Telavi

1

Bezkrovny

37

Masyutin

33

Bachiashv

4

▼

Marakveli

3

▼

Tolordava

16

⚽

9

31

7

11

▼

Pudy

27

⚽

Kvasov

19

Sepiashvi

6

⚽

Kilasonia

24

Jgerenaia

2

Tsertsvad

16

⚽2

▼

Akhaladze

7

⚽

Gogua

23

Dobrovols

33

⚽

Samushia

13

▼

Maghaldad

20

▼

Mesiachen

21

Tcheishvi

Manager: K. Katcharava

73'▲A. Endeladze←▼G. Akhaladze

80'▲S. Kerdzevadze←▼G. Maghaldadze

86'▲A. Ninua←▼A. Mesiachenko

Samtredia substitutes

10Endeladze27Kerdzevadze17Ninua8Jikidze18Olkhovi22Giorbelidze30Sturua

Manager: D. Khomutov

18'▲G. Mikava←▼D. Pudy

58'▲N. Nozadze←▼A. Tolordava

69'▲V. Gogolidze←▼P. Marakvelidze

Telavi substitutes

22Mikava6Nozadze17Gogolidze10Basheleishvili14Jikia18Tatanashvili19Eristavi