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Samtredia vs Shukura — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Shukura
Shukura
3/14/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 3Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Samtredia44%
×Draw25%
Shukura30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.52
Shukura
1.21

Samtredia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 34 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Shukura
1.44

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Shukura
1.32

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Shukura+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Shukura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
70%
Samtredia or Shukura
75%
Draw or Shukura
56%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
22%
Shukura wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
78%
Samtredia 2+ goals
45%
Samtredia 3+ goals
20%
Shukura 1+ goals
70%
Shukura 2+ goals
34%
Shukura 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
59%
Shukura (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Shukura away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Shukura defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Shukura attack 1.44 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Samtredia scores more
44%
level
25%
Shukura scores more
30%

Samtredia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Samtredia 0–1 Shukura

Shukura beat Samtredia 1-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on March 14, 2022.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.