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Samtredia vs Saburtalo — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
3 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Saburtalo
Saburtalo
3/18/2023Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 5Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Samtredia30%
×Draw25%
Saburtalo45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.21
Saburtalo
1.53

Saburtalo creates 26% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 126 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.09
Saburtalo
1.63

allows per match

Samtredia
1.44
Saburtalo
1.33

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Saburtalo+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Saburtalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
55%
Samtredia or Saburtalo
75%
Draw or Saburtalo
70%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
12%
Saburtalo wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
70%
Samtredia 2+ goals
34%
Samtredia 3+ goals
12%
Saburtalo 1+ goals
78%
Saburtalo 2+ goals
45%
Saburtalo 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
40%
Saburtalo (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Saburtalo away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.33 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.09 + Saburtalo defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.21

Saburtalo attack 1.63 + Samtredia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Samtredia scores more
30%
level
25%
Saburtalo scores more
45%

Saburtalo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Saburtalo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samtredia vs Saburtalo

Samtredia and Saburtalo drew 3-3 in Erovnuli Liga on March 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.