Samtredia 2–1 Rustavi: Result & Stats

Samtredia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Rustavi

5/12/2022

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 11Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Samtredia50%

×Draw24%

Rustavi26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtrediaExpected goals in this matchRustavi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

1.11

Samtredia

1.65

Rustavi

1.11

Samtredia creates 49% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 71 away

1.71

creates per match

1.24

0.98

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Samtredia

1.71

Rustavi

1.24

allows per match

Samtredia

0.98

Rustavi

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par

Rustavi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Rustavi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw

74%

Samtredia or Rustavi

76%

Draw or Rustavi

50%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+

26%

Rustavi wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals

81%

Samtredia 2+ goals

49%

Samtredia 3+ goals

23%

Rustavi 1+ goals

67%

Rustavi 2+ goals

30%

Rustavi 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)

66%

Rustavi (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Rustavi away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.59 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Rustavi defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.65

Rustavi attack 1.24 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Samtredia scores more

50%

level

24%

Rustavi scores more

26%

Samtredia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff