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Samtredia vs Odishi 1919 — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
Preview
12:30
Odishi 1919
Odishi 1919
8/29/2026Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 23Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium
53%
Samtredia
model favours
53%24%23%

Samtredia score first in only 21% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Samtredia53%
×Draw24%
Odishi 191923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.72
Odishi 1919
1.04

Samtredia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 11 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Odishi 1919
1.09

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Odishi 1919
1.73

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Odishi 1919+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Odishi 1919 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
77%
Samtredia or Odishi 1919
76%
Draw or Odishi 1919
47%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
29%
Odishi 1919 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
82%
Samtredia 2+ goals
51%
Samtredia 3+ goals
25%
Odishi 1919 1+ goals
65%
Odishi 1919 2+ goals
28%
Odishi 1919 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
70%
Odishi 1919 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Odishi 1919 away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.73 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Odishi 1919 defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.72

Odishi 1919 attack 1.09 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Samtredia scores more
53%
level
24%
Odishi 1919 scores more
23%

Samtredia at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Odishi 1919 score first in only 26% of matches
  • 74% of Samtredia’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Samtredia
LLDLL
1919
WWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Samtredia face Odishi 1919 (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Erovnuli Liga 2 returns with Samtredia hosting Odishi 1919. Match starts August 29, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Samtredia host Odishi 1919 at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.