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Samtredia vs Merani Martvili — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili
6/15/2022Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 15Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Samtredia50%
×Draw24%
Merani Martvili26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.67
Merani Martvili
1.13

Samtredia creates 48% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 83 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Merani Martvili
1.27

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Merani Martvili
1.64

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Merani Martvili+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Merani Martvili →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
74%
Samtredia or Merani Martvili
76%
Draw or Merani Martvili
50%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
27%
Merani Martvili wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
81%
Samtredia 2+ goals
50%
Samtredia 3+ goals
23%
Merani Martvili 1+ goals
68%
Merani Martvili 2+ goals
31%
Merani Martvili 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
66%
Merani Martvili (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Merani Martvili away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Merani Martvili defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.67

Merani Martvili attack 1.27 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Samtredia scores more
50%
level
24%
Merani Martvili scores more
26%

Samtredia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Samtredia 3–1 Merani Martvili

Samtredia beat Merani Martvili 3-1 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on June 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.