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Samtredia vs Kolkheti Poti — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti
3/6/2024Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 2Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Samtredia43%
×Draw26%
Kolkheti Poti31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.42
Kolkheti Poti
1.17

Samtredia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 36 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.09
Kolkheti Poti
0.89

allows per match

Samtredia
1.44
Kolkheti Poti
1.75

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Kolkheti Poti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
69%
Samtredia or Kolkheti Poti
74%
Draw or Kolkheti Poti
57%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
20%
Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
76%
Samtredia 2+ goals
41%
Samtredia 3+ goals
17%
Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals
69%
Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals
33%
Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
58%
Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.75 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.09 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.42

Kolkheti Poti attack 0.89 + Samtredia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Samtredia scores more
43%
level
26%
Kolkheti Poti scores more
31%

Samtredia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Samtredia 1–1 Kolkheti Poti

Samtredia and Kolkheti Poti drew 1-1 in Erovnuli Liga on March 6, 2024.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.