Samtredia 2–1 Kolkheti Poti: Result & Stats

Samtredia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Kolkheti Poti

G. Samushia 35'

G. Akhaladze 9'

L. Gogidze 59'

4/8/2019

Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 6Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze (Samtredia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Samtredia52%

×Draw24%

Kolkheti Poti24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamtrediaExpected goals in this matchKolkheti Poti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.07

Samtredia

1.71

Kolkheti Poti

1.07

Samtredia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 46 away

1.71

creates per match

1.17

0.98

allows per match

1.72

creates per match

Samtredia

1.71

Kolkheti Poti

1.17

allows per match

Samtredia

0.98

Kolkheti Poti

1.72

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par

Kolkheti Poti+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Kolkheti Poti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw

76%

Samtredia or Kolkheti Poti

76%

Draw or Kolkheti Poti

48%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+

28%

Kolkheti Poti wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals

82%

Samtredia 2+ goals

51%

Samtredia 3+ goals

24%

Kolkheti Poti 1+ goals

66%

Kolkheti Poti 2+ goals

29%

Kolkheti Poti 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)

69%

Kolkheti Poti (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Kolkheti Poti away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.72 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Kolkheti Poti defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Kolkheti Poti attack 1.17 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Samtredia scores more

52%

level

24%

Kolkheti Poti scores more

24%

Samtredia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

G. Akhaladze

35'

G. Samushia

40'

S. Kristesiashvili← G. Gogua

46'

T. Tchetchelashvili← G. Gogolashvili

46'

L. Gogidze← T. Dzadzamia

59'

L. Gogidze

65'

G. Tcheishvili← G. Samushia

77'

Z. Khabeishvili← G. Maghaldadze

79'

G. Khorkheli← L. Makharadze

Samtredia

Kolkheti

16

Abulashvi

7

Chikvilad

13

Tchurgula

3

▼

21

37

19

9

30

20

▼

Gogolashv

17

▼

19

6

24

2

16

⚽

Akhaladze

7

▼

Gogua

23

Dobrovols

33

⚽

▼

Samushia

10

Endeladze

13

▼

Maghaldad

20

Mesiachen

Manager: K. Katcharava

40'▲S. Kristesiashvili←▼G. Gogua

65'▲G. Tcheishvili←▼G. Samushia

77'▲Z. Khabeishvili←▼G. Maghaldadze

Samtredia substitutes

14Kristesiashvili21Tcheishvili9Khabeishvili8Jikidze25Kvilitaia27Kerdzevadze29Megreladze

Manager: P. Metreveli

46'▲T. Tchetchelashvili←▼G. Gogolashvili

46'▲L. Gogidze←▼T. Dzadzamia

79'▲G. Khorkheli←▼L. Makharadze

Kolkheti Poti substitutes

6Tchetchelashvili26Gogidze11Khorkheli22Tatkhashvili28Kokaia39Nanava40Dartsimelia