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Samtredia vs Gori — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
Preview
13:00
Gori
Gori
8/15/2026Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Round 21Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium
52%
Samtredia
model favours
52%27%21%

Gori score first in only 20% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
41%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Samtredia52%
×Draw27%
Gori21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.41
Gori
0.79

Samtredia creates 78% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 10 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.71
Gori
0.60

allows per match

Samtredia
0.98
Gori
1.10

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Gori+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Gori →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
79%
Samtredia or Gori
73%
Draw or Gori
48%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
26%
Gori wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
76%
Samtredia 2+ goals
41%
Samtredia 3+ goals
17%
Gori 1+ goals
55%
Gori 2+ goals
19%
Gori 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
71%
Gori (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.98 · 56 matches

Gori away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.10 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.71 + Gori defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.41

Gori attack 0.60 + Samtredia defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Samtredia scores more
52%
level
27%
Gori scores more
21%

Samtredia at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Samtredia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Samtredia score first in only 21% of matches
  • 74% of Samtredia’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 67% of Gori’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in only 33% of Gori’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Samtredia
LLDLL
Gori
WWDLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Samtredia host Gori

August 15, 2026: Samtredia take on Gori in Erovnuli Liga 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Samtredia host Gori at Erosi Manjgaladze Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.