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Samtredia vs Dinamo Batumi — Erovnuli Liga 2019

Samtredia
Samtredia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Batumi
Dinamo Batumi
5/12/2021Erovnuli LigaErovnuli Liga · Round 7Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Samtredia28%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Batumi46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samtredia
1.10
Dinamo Batumi
1.48

Dinamo Batumi creates 35% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 128 away

creates per match

Samtredia
1.09
Dinamo Batumi
1.52

allows per match

Samtredia
1.44
Dinamo Batumi
1.10

finishing

Samtredia+0.00on par
Dinamo Batumi+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samtredia ↓

Dinamo Batumi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Samtredia or draw
54%
Samtredia or Dinamo Batumi
74%
Draw or Dinamo Batumi
72%

Winning margin

Samtredia wins by 2+
11%
Dinamo Batumi wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Samtredia 1+ goals
67%
Samtredia 2+ goals
30%
Samtredia 3+ goals
10%
Dinamo Batumi 1+ goals
77%
Dinamo Batumi 2+ goals
43%
Dinamo Batumi 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Samtredia (draw refunded)
38%
Dinamo Batumi (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samtredia at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.44 · 66 matches

Dinamo Batumi away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.10 · 128 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samtredia attack 1.09 + Dinamo Batumi defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Dinamo Batumi attack 1.52 + Samtredia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Samtredia scores more
28%
level
26%
Dinamo Batumi scores more
46%

Dinamo Batumi at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dinamo Batumi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga: Samtredia 0–2 Dinamo Batumi

Dinamo Batumi beat Samtredia 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga on May 12, 2021.

The match was played at Stadioni Erosi Manjgaladze in Samtredia.