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Šampion Celje vs Čarda Martjanci — 3. SNL - East 2020

Šampion Celje
Šampion Celje
Preview
13:00
Čarda Martjanci
Čarda Martjanci
11/14/20263. SNL - East3. SNL - East · East - 14
54%
Šampion Celje
model favours
54%21%25%

Šampion Celje and Čarda Martjanci have never met before

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
68%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Šampion Celje54%
×Draw21%
Čarda Martjanci25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šampion Celje
2.20
Čarda Martjanci
1.45

Šampion Celje creates 52% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 12 away

creates per match

Šampion Celje
2.57
Čarda Martjanci
1.33

allows per match

Šampion Celje
1.57
Čarda Martjanci
1.83

finishing

Šampion Celje+0.00on par
Čarda Martjanci+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šampion Celje ↓

Čarda Martjanci →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Šampion Celje or draw
75%
Šampion Celje or Čarda Martjanci
79%
Draw or Čarda Martjanci
46%

Winning margin

Šampion Celje wins by 2+
33%
Čarda Martjanci wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Šampion Celje 1+ goals
89%
Šampion Celje 2+ goals
64%
Šampion Celje 3+ goals
37%
Čarda Martjanci 1+ goals
77%
Čarda Martjanci 2+ goals
42%
Čarda Martjanci 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Šampion Celje (draw refunded)
68%
Čarda Martjanci (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šampion Celje at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Čarda Martjanci away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šampion Celje attack 2.57 + Čarda Martjanci defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.20

Čarda Martjanci attack 1.33 + Šampion Celje defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Šampion Celje scores more
54%
level
21%
Čarda Martjanci scores more
25%

Šampion Celje at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Šampion Celje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Celje
LWLDW
Martjanci
DWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Šampion Celje host Čarda Martjanci

November 14, 2026: Šampion Celje take on Čarda Martjanci in 3. SNL - East. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.