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Šamorín vs Považská Bystrica — 2. liga 2019

Šamorín
Šamorín
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Považská Bystrica
Považská Bystrica
11/12/20232. liga2. liga · Round 16Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Šamorín46%
×Draw24%
Považská Bystrica30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Šamorín
1.64
Považská Bystrica
1.27

Šamorín creates 29% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 58 away

creates per match

Šamorín
1.73
Považská Bystrica
1.29

allows per match

Šamorín
1.26
Považská Bystrica
1.55

finishing

Šamorín+0.00on par
Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Šamorín ↓

Považská Bystrica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Šamorín or draw
70%
Šamorín or Považská Bystrica
76%
Draw or Považská Bystrica
54%

Winning margin

Šamorín wins by 2+
24%
Považská Bystrica wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Šamorín 1+ goals
81%
Šamorín 2+ goals
49%
Šamorín 3+ goals
23%
Považská Bystrica 1+ goals
72%
Považská Bystrica 2+ goals
36%
Považská Bystrica 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Šamorín (draw refunded)
61%
Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Šamorín at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.26 · 96 matches

Považská Bystrica away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.55 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Šamorín attack 1.73 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.64

Považská Bystrica attack 1.29 + Šamorín defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Šamorín scores more
46%
level
24%
Považská Bystrica scores more
30%

Šamorín at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Šamorín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Šamorín vs Považská Bystrica

Považská Bystrica beat Šamorín 3-2 in 2. liga on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Mestský štadión in Šamorín.