Samgurali 0–3 Samtredia: Result & Stats

Samgurali

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Samtredia

9/28/2023

Erovnuli Liga · Round 27Stadioni Davit Abashidze

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Samgurali54%

×Draw24%

Samtredia23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamguraliExpected goals in this matchSamtredia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.06

Samgurali

1.76

Samtredia

1.06

Samgurali creates 66% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 64 away

1.52

creates per match

1.03

1.09

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Samgurali

1.52

Samtredia

1.03

allows per match

Samgurali

1.09

Samtredia

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samgurali+0.00on par

Samtredia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samgurali ↓

Samtredia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Samgurali or draw

77%

Samgurali or Samtredia

76%

Draw or Samtredia

46%

Winning margin

Samgurali wins by 2+

30%

Samtredia wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Samgurali 1+ goals

83%

Samgurali 2+ goals

52%

Samgurali 3+ goals

26%

Samtredia 1+ goals

65%

Samtredia 2+ goals

29%

Samtredia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Samgurali (draw refunded)

70%

Samtredia (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samgurali at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.09 · 99 matches

Samtredia away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.00 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samgurali attack 1.52 + Samtredia defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.76

Samtredia attack 1.03 + Samgurali defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Samgurali scores more

54%

level

24%

Samtredia scores more

23%

Samgurali at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Samgurali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff