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Samger vs Wallidan — GFA League 2020

Samger
Samger
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Wallidan
Wallidan
4/8/2022GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 14

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Samger29%
×Draw34%
Wallidan37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samger
0.79
Wallidan
0.94

Wallidan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 58 away

creates per match

Samger
0.88
Wallidan
0.84

allows per match

Samger
1.03
Wallidan
0.71

finishing

Samger+0.00on par
Wallidan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samger ↓

Wallidan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–117%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Samger or draw
63%
Samger or Wallidan
66%
Draw or Wallidan
71%

Winning margin

Samger wins by 2+
9%
Wallidan wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Samger 1+ goals
55%
Samger 2+ goals
19%
Samger 3+ goals
5%
Wallidan 1+ goals
61%
Wallidan 2+ goals
24%
Wallidan 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Samger (draw refunded)
44%
Wallidan (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samger at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Wallidan away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.71 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samger attack 0.88 + Wallidan defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Wallidan attack 0.84 + Samger defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Samger scores more
29%
level
34%
Wallidan scores more
37%

Wallidan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wallidan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Samger 2–1 Wallidan

Samger beat Wallidan 2-1 in GFA League on April 8, 2022.