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Şamaxı FK vs Səbail — Premyer Liqa 2019

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Səbail
Səbail
8/19/2022Premyer LiqaPremyer Liqa · Round 3Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Şamaxı FK46%
×Draw27%
Səbail27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şamaxı FK
1.39
Səbail
1.00

Şamaxı FK creates 39% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 92 away

creates per match

Şamaxı FK
0.89
Səbail
0.82

allows per match

Şamaxı FK
1.18
Səbail
1.89

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par
Səbail+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Səbail →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw
73%
Şamaxı FK or Səbail
73%
Draw or Səbail
54%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
22%
Səbail wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
75%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
40%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
16%
Səbail 1+ goals
63%
Səbail 2+ goals
26%
Səbail 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
63%
Səbail (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.18 · 91 matches

Səbail away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.89 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 0.89 + Səbail defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.39

Səbail attack 0.82 + Şamaxı FK defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more
46%
level
27%
Səbail scores more
27%

Şamaxı FK at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premyer Liqa: Şamaxı FK 1–1 Səbail

Şamaxı FK and Səbail drew 1-1 in Premyer Liqa on August 19, 2022.

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.