Samartex 2–0 Heart of Lions: Result & Stats

Samartex

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Heart of Lions

12/10/2023

Premier League · Round 14Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Samartex54%

×Draw29%

Heart of Lions18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamartexExpected goals in this matchHeart of Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.62

Samartex

1.32

Heart of Lions

0.62

Samartex creates 113% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 51 away

1.40

creates per match

0.78

0.46

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Samartex

1.40

Heart of Lions

0.78

allows per match

Samartex

0.46

Heart of Lions

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par

Heart of Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Heart of Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Samartex or draw

82%

Samartex or Heart of Lions

71%

Draw or Heart of Lions

46%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+

26%

Heart of Lions wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals

73%

Samartex 2+ goals

38%

Samartex 3+ goals

15%

Heart of Lions 1+ goals

46%

Heart of Lions 2+ goals

13%

Heart of Lions 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)

75%

Heart of Lions (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Heart of Lions away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Heart of Lions defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.32

Heart of Lions attack 0.78 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Samartex scores more

54%

level

29%

Heart of Lions scores more

18%

Samartex at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff