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Sámano vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Sámano
Sámano
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
10/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Estadio Vallegon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Sámano42%
×Draw25%
Atlético Albericia32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sámano
1.48
Atlético Albericia
1.25

Sámano creates 18% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 108 away

creates per match

Sámano
1.52
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Sámano
0.93
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Sámano+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sámano ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sámano or draw
68%
Sámano or Atlético Albericia
75%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
58%

Winning margin

Sámano wins by 2+
21%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Sámano 1+ goals
77%
Sámano 2+ goals
43%
Sámano 3+ goals
19%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
36%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sámano (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sámano at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.93 · 91 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sámano attack 1.52 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Sámano defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Sámano scores more
42%
level
25%
Atlético Albericia scores more
32%

Sámano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sámano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Sámano 4 – 2 Atlético Albericia

Sámano beat Atlético Albericia 4-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Vallegon in Cantabria.