Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SalPa vs PKKU — Ykkönen 2026

SalPa
SalPa
Preview
13:00
PKKU
PKKU
7/25/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageSalon urheilupuisto
47%
SalPa
model favours
47%21%32%

PKKU have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
74%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

SalPa47%
×Draw21%
PKKU32%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SalPa
2.13
PKKU
1.74

SalPa creates 22% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 33 away

creates per match

SalPa
2.19
PKKU
2.15

allows per match

SalPa
1.33
PKKU
2.06

finishing

SalPa+0.00on par
PKKU+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SalPa ↓

PKKU →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

SalPa or draw
68%
SalPa or PKKU
79%
Draw or PKKU
53%

Winning margin

SalPa wins by 2+
27%
PKKU wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SalPa 1+ goals
88%
SalPa 2+ goals
63%
SalPa 3+ goals
35%
PKKU 1+ goals
82%
PKKU 2+ goals
52%
PKKU 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

SalPa (draw refunded)
59%
PKKU (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SalPa at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.33 · 21 matches

PKKU away — creates 2.15, concedes 2.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SalPa attack 2.19 + PKKU defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 2.13

PKKU attack 2.15 + SalPa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

SalPa scores more
47%
level
21%
PKKU scores more
32%

SalPa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 86% over 2.5)
  • Both teams score in 93% of PKKU’s matches
  • 86% of PKKU’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • 83% of SalPa’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • SalPa are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • PKKU score first in only 29% of matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
SalPa
WWDDW
PKKU
DWLWD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: SalPa host PKKU

July 25, 2026: SalPa take on PKKU in Ykkönen. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

SalPa host PKKU at Salon urheilupuisto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.