Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

SalPa vs OLS — Ykkönen 2026

SalPa
SalPa
Preview
13:00
OLS
OLS
8/22/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageSalon urheilupuisto
46%
SalPa
model favours
46%23%31%

Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 73% over 2.5)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
64%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SalPa46%
×Draw23%
OLS31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SalPa
1.81
OLS
1.46

SalPa creates 24% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

SalPa
2.09
OLS
1.60

allows per match

SalPa
1.32
OLS
1.54

finishing

SalPa+0.00on par
OLS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 64No: 3664%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SalPa ↓

OLS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SalPa or draw
69%
SalPa or OLS
77%
Draw or OLS
54%

Winning margin

SalPa wins by 2+
25%
OLS wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SalPa 1+ goals
84%
SalPa 2+ goals
54%
SalPa 3+ goals
27%
OLS 1+ goals
77%
OLS 2+ goals
43%
OLS 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

SalPa (draw refunded)
59%
OLS (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SalPa at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

OLS away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SalPa attack 2.09 + OLS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.81

OLS attack 1.60 + SalPa defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

SalPa scores more
46%
level
23%
OLS scores more
31%

SalPa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 83% of SalPa’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • SalPa are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 73% of OLS’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 75% of SalPa’s matches
  • Both teams score in 73% of OLS’s matches
  • 27% of SalPa’s goals come in the first 15 minutes

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
SalPa
LWWDD
OLS
DLLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SalPa vs OLS — Match Preview

SalPa face OLS on August 22, 2026 in this Ykkönen fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SalPa host OLS at Salon urheilupuisto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.