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SalPa vs JJK — Ykkönen 2026

SalPa
SalPa
Preview
15:30
JJK
JJK
8/5/2026YkkönenYkkönen · Group StageSalon urheilupuisto
56%
SalPa
model favours
56%21%23%

JJK score first in only 12% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
63%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

SalPa56%
×Draw21%
JJK23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SalPa
2.04
JJK
1.23

SalPa creates 66% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 65 away

creates per match

SalPa
2.09
JJK
1.14

allows per match

SalPa
1.32
JJK
2.00

finishing

SalPa+0.00on par
JJK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 63Under: 3763%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 62No: 3862%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SalPa ↓

JJK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

SalPa or draw
77%
SalPa or JJK
79%
Draw or JJK
44%

Winning margin

SalPa wins by 2+
33%
JJK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

SalPa 1+ goals
87%
SalPa 2+ goals
60%
SalPa 3+ goals
33%
JJK 1+ goals
71%
JJK 2+ goals
35%
JJK 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

SalPa (draw refunded)
71%
JJK (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SalPa at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

JJK away — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SalPa attack 2.09 + JJK defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.04

JJK attack 1.14 + SalPa defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

SalPa scores more
56%
level
21%
JJK scores more
23%

SalPa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "SalPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both sides lean high-scoring (83% and 77% over 2.5)
  • 83% of SalPa’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • SalPa are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 77% of JJK’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Both teams score in 75% of SalPa’s matches
  • 33% of JJK’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
SalPa
LWWDD
JJK
LLDLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SalPa face JJK (Ykkönen)

Ykkönen returns with SalPa hosting JJK. Match starts August 5, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

SalPa host JJK at Salon urheilupuisto.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.