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Salgótarjáni BTC vs Putnok VSE — NB III - Northeast 2019

Salgótarjáni BTC
Salgótarjáni BTC
FT
2 – 3
Putnok VSE
Putnok VSE
11/14/2021NB III - NortheastNB III - Northeast · Keleti - 17Szojka Ferenc Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Salgótarjáni BTC35%
×Draw24%
Putnok VSE41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.42
Putnok VSE
1.55

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 49 home / 112 away

creates per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.29
Putnok VSE
1.63

allows per match

Salgótarjáni BTC
1.47
Putnok VSE
1.54

finishing

Salgótarjáni BTC+0.00on par
Putnok VSE+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgótarjáni BTC ↓

Putnok VSE →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Salgótarjáni BTC or draw
59%
Salgótarjáni BTC or Putnok VSE
76%
Draw or Putnok VSE
65%

Winning margin

Salgótarjáni BTC wins by 2+
16%
Putnok VSE wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Salgótarjáni BTC 1+ goals
76%
Salgótarjáni BTC 2+ goals
41%
Salgótarjáni BTC 3+ goals
17%
Putnok VSE 1+ goals
79%
Putnok VSE 2+ goals
46%
Putnok VSE 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Salgótarjáni BTC (draw refunded)
46%
Putnok VSE (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgótarjáni BTC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 49 matches

Putnok VSE away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.54 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgótarjáni BTC attack 1.29 + Putnok VSE defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.42

Putnok VSE attack 1.63 + Salgótarjáni BTC defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Salgótarjáni BTC scores more
35%
level
24%
Putnok VSE scores more
41%

Putnok VSE at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Putnok VSE will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

NB III - Northeast: Salgótarjáni BTC 2–3 Putnok VSE

Putnok VSE beat Salgótarjáni BTC 3-2 in NB III - Northeast on November 14, 2021.

The match was played at Szojka Ferenc Stadion in Salgótarján.