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Salford City vs Newport County — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
18:45
Newport County
Newport County
9/1/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 4Peninsula Stadium
Big match
63%
Salford City
model favours
63%21%16%

Newport County score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
52%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City63%
×Draw21%
Newport County16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
2.04
Newport County
0.91

Salford City creates 124% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 12 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Newport County
1.05

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Newport County
2.13

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Newport County-0.30scores less

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Newport County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
84%
Salford City or Newport County
79%
Draw or Newport County
37%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
39%
Newport County wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
87%
Salford City 2+ goals
60%
Salford City 3+ goals
33%
Newport County 1+ goals
60%
Newport County 2+ goals
23%
Newport County 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
80%
Newport County (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Newport County away — creates 1.05, concedes 2.13 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Newport County defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.04

Newport County attack 1.05 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Salford City scores more
63%
level
21%
Newport County scores more
16%

Salford City at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City score first in only 33% of matches
  • Salford City have won 7 of the last 10 meetings
  • Salford City sit 4, Newport County 20 in the table
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Salford City
Attack-heavy
Newport County
Balanced
52%Possession48%
67%Pass accuracy67%
13.2Shots11.4
1.73xGBiggest gap1.12
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Salford CityNewport County

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

7
Salford City
1
Draws
2
Newport County
Avg goals: 2.9BTTS: 60%
1–31–01–11–31–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLLWD
County
DLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salford City face Newport County (League Two)

League Two returns with Salford City hosting Newport County. Match starts September 1, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Salford City host Newport County at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.