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Salford City vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Salford City
Salford City
Preview
15:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
3/20/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Peninsula Stadium
Big match
61%
Salford City
model favours
61%23%17%

Salford City score first in only 33% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Salford City61%
×Draw23%
Accrington ST17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salford City
1.80
Accrington ST
0.82

Salford City creates 120% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Salford City
1.95
Accrington ST
0.88

allows per match

Salford City
0.77
Accrington ST
1.66

finishing

Salford City-0.32scores less
Accrington ST-0.15scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salford City ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Salford City or draw
83%
Salford City or Accrington ST
77%
Draw or Accrington ST
39%

Winning margin

Salford City wins by 2+
35%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Salford City 1+ goals
83%
Salford City 2+ goals
54%
Salford City 3+ goals
27%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
56%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
20%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Salford City (draw refunded)
78%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salford City at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.77 · 8 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salford City attack 1.95 + Accrington ST defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.80

Accrington ST attack 0.88 + Salford City defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Salford City scores more
61%
level
23%
Accrington ST scores more
17%

Salford City at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Salford City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Salford City sit 4, Accrington ST 16 in the table
  • Salford City fall short of their xG (1.4 vs 1.7 expected)
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.2 vs 0.9 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Salford City
Attack-heavy
Accrington ST
Balanced
52%Possession47%
67%Pass accuracy62%
12.9Shots11.4
1.73xGBiggest gap0.91
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Salford CityAccrington ST

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

2
Salford City
0
Draws
4
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 50%
0–12–11–22–00–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
City
WLLWD
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Salford City host Accrington ST

March 20, 2027: Salford City take on Accrington ST in League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Salford City host Accrington ST at Peninsula Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.