Salamanca II 0–1 Bembibre: Result & Stats

Salamanca II

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bembibre

2/22/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 28Estadio El Helmántico

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Salamanca II45%

×Draw28%

Bembibre27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salamanca IIExpected goals in this matchBembibre

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.94

Salamanca II

1.32

Bembibre

0.94

Salamanca II creates 40% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 110 away

1.13

creates per match

0.82

1.06

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Salamanca II

1.13

Bembibre

0.82

allows per match

Salamanca II

1.06

Bembibre

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salamanca II+0.00on par

Bembibre+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salamanca II ↓

Bembibre →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Salamanca II or draw

73%

Salamanca II or Bembibre

72%

Draw or Bembibre

55%

Winning margin

Salamanca II wins by 2+

21%

Bembibre wins by 2+

Team goals

Salamanca II 1+ goals

73%

Salamanca II 2+ goals

38%

Salamanca II 3+ goals

15%

Bembibre 1+ goals

61%

Bembibre 2+ goals

24%

Bembibre 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Salamanca II (draw refunded)

63%

Bembibre (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Salamanca II at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.06 · 62 matches

Bembibre away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.51 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Salamanca II attack 1.13 + Bembibre defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.32

Bembibre attack 0.82 + Salamanca II defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salamanca II scores more

45%

level

28%

Bembibre scores more

27%

Salamanca II at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salamanca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff