Sakhalin 0–1 Zenit Penza: Result & Stats

Sakhalin

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Zenit Penza

9/2/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 7Stadion Znamya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sakhalin48%

×Draw26%

Zenit Penza26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinExpected goals in this matchZenit Penza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.01

Sakhalin

1.48

Zenit Penza

1.01

Sakhalin creates 47% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 76 away

1.29

creates per match

0.96

1.06

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Sakhalin

1.29

Zenit Penza

0.96

allows per match

Sakhalin

1.06

Zenit Penza

1.66

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par

Zenit Penza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Zenit Penza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw

74%

Sakhalin or Zenit Penza

74%

Draw or Zenit Penza

52%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+

24%

Zenit Penza wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals

77%

Sakhalin 2+ goals

43%

Sakhalin 3+ goals

19%

Zenit Penza 1+ goals

64%

Zenit Penza 2+ goals

27%

Zenit Penza 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)

65%

Zenit Penza (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Zenit Penza away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.66 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Zenit Penza defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.48

Zenit Penza attack 0.96 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sakhalin scores more

48%

level

26%

Zenit Penza scores more

26%

Sakhalin at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sakhalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff