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Sakhalin vs Kvant — Second League - Group 3 2020

Sakhalin
Sakhalin
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Kvant
Kvant
6/10/2021Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sakhalin56%
×Draw23%
Kvant21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sakhalin
1.77
Kvant
0.97

Sakhalin creates 82% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 93 away

creates per match

Sakhalin
1.29
Kvant
0.88

allows per match

Sakhalin
1.06
Kvant
2.26

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par
Kvant+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Kvant →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw
79%
Sakhalin or Kvant
77%
Draw or Kvant
44%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+
32%
Kvant wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals
83%
Sakhalin 2+ goals
53%
Sakhalin 3+ goals
26%
Kvant 1+ goals
62%
Kvant 2+ goals
25%
Kvant 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)
73%
Kvant (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Kvant away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.26 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Kvant defence 2.26 → ÷2 → 1.77

Kvant attack 0.88 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Sakhalin scores more
56%
level
23%
Kvant scores more
21%

Sakhalin at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Sakhalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sakhalin vs Kvant

Kvant beat Sakhalin 2-0 in Second League - Group 3 on June 10, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk.