Sakhalin 3–2 Arsenal Tula II: Result & Stats

Sakhalin

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Arsenal Tula II

10/13/2021

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sakhalin45%

×Draw26%

Arsenal Tula II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SakhalinExpected goals in this matchArsenal Tula II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.13

Sakhalin

1.48

Arsenal Tula II

1.13

Sakhalin creates 31% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 77 away

1.29

creates per match

1.19

1.06

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Sakhalin

1.29

Arsenal Tula II

1.19

allows per match

Sakhalin

1.06

Arsenal Tula II

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sakhalin+0.00on par

Arsenal Tula II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sakhalin ↓

Arsenal Tula II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Sakhalin or draw

71%

Sakhalin or Arsenal Tula II

74%

Draw or Arsenal Tula II

55%

Winning margin

Sakhalin wins by 2+

22%

Arsenal Tula II wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sakhalin 1+ goals

77%

Sakhalin 2+ goals

43%

Sakhalin 3+ goals

19%

Arsenal Tula II 1+ goals

68%

Arsenal Tula II 2+ goals

31%

Arsenal Tula II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Sakhalin (draw refunded)

61%

Arsenal Tula II (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sakhalin at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.06 · 69 matches

Arsenal Tula II away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.68 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sakhalin attack 1.29 + Arsenal Tula II defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

Arsenal Tula II attack 1.19 + Sakhalin defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sakhalin scores more

45%

level

26%

Arsenal Tula II scores more

29%

Sakhalin at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sakhalin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff