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Saipa vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Saipa
Saipa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
11/9/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 11Enghelab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Saipa46%
×Draw31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saipa
1.15
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.73

Saipa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 100 away

creates per match

Saipa
1.18
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Saipa
0.58
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Saipa+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saipa ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Saipa or draw
77%
Saipa or Pars Jonoubi JAM
69%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
54%

Winning margin

Saipa wins by 2+
20%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Saipa 1+ goals
68%
Saipa 2+ goals
32%
Saipa 3+ goals
11%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
52%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
17%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Saipa (draw refunded)
66%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saipa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.58 · 84 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saipa attack 1.18 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.15

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Saipa defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Saipa scores more
46%
level
31%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
23%

Saipa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Saipa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saipa vs Pars Jonoubi JAM

Saipa beat Pars Jonoubi JAM 1-0 in Azadegan League on November 9, 2023.

The match was played at Enghelab Stadium in Karadj.