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Saint Louis vs Thunder Bay Chill — USL League Two 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
PST
23:00
Thunder Bay Chill
Thunder Bay Chill
6/11/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 27Tony Glavin Soccer Complex (Cottleville, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Louis42%
×Draw23%
Thunder Bay Chill35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
1.74
Thunder Bay Chill
1.57

Saint Louis creates 11% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 21 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
2.29
Thunder Bay Chill
1.71

allows per match

Saint Louis
1.43
Thunder Bay Chill
1.19

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Thunder Bay Chill+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Thunder Bay Chill →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
65%
Saint Louis or Thunder Bay Chill
77%
Draw or Thunder Bay Chill
58%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
22%
Thunder Bay Chill wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
82%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
52%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
25%
Thunder Bay Chill 1+ goals
79%
Thunder Bay Chill 2+ goals
46%
Thunder Bay Chill 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
55%
Thunder Bay Chill (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Thunder Bay Chill away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.19 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.29 + Thunder Bay Chill defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.74

Thunder Bay Chill attack 1.71 + Saint Louis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Saint Louis scores more
42%
level
23%
Thunder Bay Chill scores more
35%

Saint Louis at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Saint Louis vs Thunder Bay Chill — Match Preview

Saint Louis face Thunder Bay Chill on June 11, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Saint Louis host Thunder Bay Chill at Tony Glavin Soccer Complex (Cottleville, Missouri).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.