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Saint Louis vs Green Bay Voyageurs — USL League Two 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
PST
19:00
Green Bay Voyageurs
Green Bay Voyageurs
7/5/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 48Tony Glavin Soccer Complex (Cottleville, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Saint Louis60%
×Draw20%
Green Bay Voyageurs20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
2.20
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.21

Saint Louis creates 82% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
2.29
Green Bay Voyageurs
1.00

allows per match

Saint Louis
1.43
Green Bay Voyageurs
2.11

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Green Bay Voyageurs+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Green Bay Voyageurs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
80%
Saint Louis or Green Bay Voyageurs
80%
Draw or Green Bay Voyageurs
40%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
37%
Green Bay Voyageurs wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
89%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
64%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
37%
Green Bay Voyageurs 1+ goals
70%
Green Bay Voyageurs 2+ goals
34%
Green Bay Voyageurs 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
75%
Green Bay Voyageurs (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 2.29, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

Green Bay Voyageurs away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 2.29 + Green Bay Voyageurs defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.20

Green Bay Voyageurs attack 1.00 + Saint Louis defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Saint Louis scores more
60%
level
20%
Green Bay Voyageurs scores more
20%

Saint Louis at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Saint Louis host Green Bay Voyageurs

July 5, 2020: Saint Louis take on Green Bay Voyageurs in USL League Two. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Saint Louis host Green Bay Voyageurs at Tony Glavin Soccer Complex (Cottleville, Missouri).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.