Saint Eloi Lupopo 1–1 Lubumbashi Sport

Saint Eloi Lupopo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lubumbashi Sport

10/20/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 4Stade de Kikula

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo57%

×Draw27%

Lubumbashi Sport16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saint Eloi LupopoExpected goals in this matchLubumbashi Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.62

Saint Eloi Lupopo

1.44

Lubumbashi Sport

0.62

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 132% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 85 away

1.43

creates per match

0.76

0.48

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo

1.43

Lubumbashi Sport

0.76

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo

0.48

Lubumbashi Sport

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par

Lubumbashi Sport+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Lubumbashi Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–18%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw

84%

Saint Eloi Lupopo or Lubumbashi Sport

73%

Draw or Lubumbashi Sport

43%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+

29%

Lubumbashi Sport wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals

76%

Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals

42%

Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals

18%

Lubumbashi Sport 1+ goals

46%

Lubumbashi Sport 2+ goals

13%

Lubumbashi Sport 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)

78%

Lubumbashi Sport (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Lubumbashi Sport away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.45 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Lubumbashi Sport defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.44

Lubumbashi Sport attack 0.76 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more

57%

level

27%

Lubumbashi Sport scores more

16%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff