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Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Blessing — Ligue 1 2019

Saint Eloi Lupopo
Saint Eloi Lupopo
FT
1 – 0
Blessing
Blessing
12/22/2020Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 10Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Saint Eloi Lupopo51%
×Draw30%
Blessing19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.27
Blessing
0.65

Saint Eloi Lupopo creates 95% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 62 away

creates per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
1.43
Blessing
0.81

allows per match

Saint Eloi Lupopo
0.48
Blessing
1.11

finishing

Saint Eloi Lupopo+0.00on par
Blessing+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Eloi Lupopo ↓

Blessing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Saint Eloi Lupopo or draw
81%
Saint Eloi Lupopo or Blessing
70%
Draw or Blessing
49%

Winning margin

Saint Eloi Lupopo wins by 2+
24%
Blessing wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saint Eloi Lupopo 1+ goals
72%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 2+ goals
36%
Saint Eloi Lupopo 3+ goals
14%
Blessing 1+ goals
48%
Blessing 2+ goals
14%
Blessing 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Saint Eloi Lupopo (draw refunded)
73%
Blessing (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Eloi Lupopo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.48 · 95 matches

Blessing away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.11 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Eloi Lupopo attack 1.43 + Blessing defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.27

Blessing attack 0.81 + Saint Eloi Lupopo defence 0.48 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Saint Eloi Lupopo scores more
51%
level
30%
Blessing scores more
19%

Saint Eloi Lupopo at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Saint Eloi Lupopo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Saint Eloi Lupopo vs Blessing

Saint Eloi Lupopo beat Blessing 1-0 in Ligue 1 on December 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Frédéric Kibassa Maliba in Lubumbashi.