Şagadam 2–0 Energetik: Result & Stats | Ýokary Liga

Şagadam

FT

2 – 0

Energetik

11/9/2022

Ýokary Liga · Round 19Türkmenbaşy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Şagadam65%

×Draw20%

Energetik15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŞagadamExpected goals in this matchEnergetik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.07

0.87

Şagadam

2.07

Energetik

0.87

Şagadam creates 138% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 55 away

1.54

creates per match

0.56

1.18

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Şagadam

1.54

Energetik

0.56

allows per match

Şagadam

1.18

Energetik

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Şagadam+0.00on par

Energetik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şagadam ↓

Energetik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Şagadam or draw

85%

Şagadam or Energetik

80%

Draw or Energetik

35%

Winning margin

Şagadam wins by 2+

41%

Energetik wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Şagadam 1+ goals

87%

Şagadam 2+ goals

61%

Şagadam 3+ goals

34%

Energetik 1+ goals

58%

Energetik 2+ goals

22%

Energetik 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Şagadam (draw refunded)

81%

Energetik (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şagadam at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.18 · 83 matches

Energetik away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şagadam attack 1.54 + Energetik defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.07

Energetik attack 0.56 + Şagadam defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Şagadam scores more

65%

level

20%

Energetik scores more

15%

Şagadam at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Şagadam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff