Safa 1–2 Tripoli SC: Result & Stats

Safa

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Tripoli SC

10/18/2021

Premier League · Round 4Amin Abdelnour Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Safa44%

×Draw28%

Tripoli SC28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SafaExpected goals in this matchTripoli SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.00

Safa

1.32

Tripoli SC

1.00

Safa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 36 away

1.51

creates per match

0.92

1.08

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Safa

1.51

Tripoli SC

0.92

allows per match

Safa

1.08

Tripoli SC

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Safa+0.00on par

Tripoli SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Safa ↓

Tripoli SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Safa or draw

72%

Safa or Tripoli SC

72%

Draw or Tripoli SC

56%

Winning margin

Safa wins by 2+

20%

Tripoli SC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Safa 1+ goals

73%

Safa 2+ goals

38%

Safa 3+ goals

15%

Tripoli SC 1+ goals

63%

Tripoli SC 2+ goals

26%

Tripoli SC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Safa (draw refunded)

61%

Tripoli SC (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Safa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 65 matches

Tripoli SC away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Safa attack 1.51 + Tripoli SC defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.32

Tripoli SC attack 0.92 + Safa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Safa scores more

44%

level

28%

Tripoli SC scores more

28%

Safa at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff