Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Safa vs Racing — Premier League 2019

Safa
Safa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Racing
Racing
12/10/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Fouad Shehab Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Safa59%
×Draw23%
Racing19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Safa
1.85
Racing
0.94

Safa creates 97% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 34 away

creates per match

Safa
1.51
Racing
0.79

allows per match

Safa
1.08
Racing
2.18

finishing

Safa+0.00on par
Racing+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Safa ↓

Racing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Safa or draw
81%
Safa or Racing
77%
Draw or Racing
41%

Winning margin

Safa wins by 2+
34%
Racing wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Safa 1+ goals
84%
Safa 2+ goals
55%
Safa 3+ goals
28%
Racing 1+ goals
61%
Racing 2+ goals
24%
Racing 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Safa (draw refunded)
76%
Racing (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Safa at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.08 · 65 matches

Racing away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Safa attack 1.51 + Racing defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.85

Racing attack 0.79 + Safa defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Safa scores more
59%
level
23%
Racing scores more
19%

Safa at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Safa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Safa 2–2 Racing

Safa and Racing drew 2-2 in Premier League on December 10, 2023.

The match was played at Fouad Shehab Stadium in Jounie.